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Impact of Financial Crisis on the Profitability of Capital Structure Arbitrage in Australia
Svec, J1, Reeves, N2.
We evaluate the performance of a convergence style capital structure arbitrage
trading strategy using Australian CDS spreads estimated by the Credit Grades
model. By comparing a number of volatility inputs, we find that although
option-implied volatility inputs produce biased spreads compared to historical
measures, their correlation with medium-term changes in market spreads
generate significantly more profitable trades during the financial crisis, even
after the inclusion of transaction costs. While the strategy is risky at both the
individual obligor and the iTraxx Index level, combining positions into an
equally-weighted index of arbitrage trades reduces risk.
Affiliation:
- Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia
- Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia
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