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Large-scale epidemiological modelling: exploring the impact of the ASEAN economic corridors policy on the Dengue fever epidemic
Drogoul Alexis1, Choisy Marc2, Gaudou BenoƮt3, Marilleau Nicolas4, Philippon Damien5.
In this study, we present an implementation of a hybrid, integrated model that supports various
explorations of the relationship between the increasing regional integration among ASEAN countries
and the Dengue fever epidemic in the same countries. Using the available public data on economic
exchanges, climatic conditions and dengue fever cases as the input, we designed a complex model
composed of three sub-models: a SEIR/SIR mathematical epidemiological model that operates at a local
scale and combines the population dynamics of mosquitoes with the computation of infected mosquitoes
and people, a cellular automata model that provides support for the spread of infected mosquitoes and
people between its cells, an agent-based model based on accurate GIS road data, which reproduces
the traffic of trucks between countries, and an agent-based model of control policy decision-making at
the scale of each country. All these models were coupled within the same framework, supported by
the GAMA modelling and simulation platform (http://gama-platform.org), which scheduled them using
a timescale of 12 hours over 10 years (from 2002 to 2011). This integrated model has been designed
to be completely generic: provided the required data (on climate conditions, dengue cases, commercial
exchanges, and health policies) was available, it could be applied to any geographic location at any
spatial scale. It has been extensively tested on a specific case study: the terrestrial East-West Economic
Corridor, a continuous land route that links Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar.
Affiliation:
- University Paris Descartes, France
- University Paris Descartes, France
- University Paris Descartes, France
- University of Montpellier, France
- University of Toulouse, France
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Indexation |
Indexed by |
MyJurnal (2021) |
H-Index
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2 |
Immediacy Index
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0.000 |
Rank |
0 |
Indexed by |
Scopus 2020 |
Impact Factor
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CiteScore (0.3) |
Rank |
Q4 (Multidisciplinary) |
Additional Information |
SJR (0.12) |
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