Does interest rate still matter in determining exchange rate?
Har, Wai-Mun1, Tan, Ai-Lian2, Lim, Chong-Heng3, Tan, Chai-Thing4.
The interest rate plays an important role in determining the exchange
rate in various economic theories. However, this has been challenged both
conceptually and practically. The rapid development of global financial
linkages makes many attractive non-interest-bearing investments available,
which dwarf the profit opportunity from interest-bearing assets. The sensitivity
of the exchange rate fluctuations and institutional factors also cast doubt on the
role of the interest rate in determining the exchange rate. This research used
nine Asian countries, five of which are ASEAN members (Thailand, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines), the others being South Korea, Japan,
India, and China. The sample period varied between 1994 and 2015. The
results from the Pool Mean Group method show that the real effective real
interest rate has a significant long-run negative association with the exchange
rate. This implies that the interest rate does matter in determining the exchange
rate.
Affiliation:
- Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Malaysia
- Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Malaysia
- Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Malaysia
- Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Malaysia