The effects of COVID-19 outbreak on the Nigerian stock exchange performance: Evidence from GARCH models
Monday Osagie Adenomon1, Bilkisu Maijamaa2, Daniel Owoicholofu John3.
The recent COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and now it has caused
huge death and spread to almost all over the world. There are news that most of the world economy and
financial markets would be affected due to protocols such as lockdown and social distancing. In Nigeria,
the first case of COVID-19 was identified on 27th February 2020 and this present study examines the
effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the performance of the Nigeria stock exchange using secondary data
for the period of 2nd March 2015 to 16th April, 2020. Also the study considered the COVID-19 period
of 2nd January 2020 to 16th April 2020, the results from GARCH models revealed a loss in stock returns
and high volatility in stock returns under the COVID-19 period in Nigeria as against the non COVID-
19 period. Also, the Quadratic GARCH (QGARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models with
dummy variable were applied to the stock returns which shown that the COVID-19 has had negative
effect on the stock returns in the Nigeria stock markets. The study therefore recommended that
economic policy such as incentive to indigenous companies to create new employments, diversification
of the economy to attract new investors, and flexible exchange rate regime that will aid business
between Nigeria investors and the international market (trade) be implemented. Lastly, the government
of Nigeria should ensure policy that ensures stable political environment and reduction in insecurity in
the country.
Affiliation:
- Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria , Nigeria
- Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria , Nigeria
- Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria , Nigeria
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