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A performance of SIR model in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia based on different phase of COVID-19 outbreaks
Nur Fatihah Fauzi1, Nurizatul Syarfinas Ahmad Bakhtiar2, Nur Izzati Khairudin3, Huda Zuhrah Ab. Halim4, Nor Hayati Shafii5.
Since December 2019, COVID-19 has quickly taken on a massive global formled to the World Health Organization (WHO) classified COVID-19 as a pandemicoutbreak as a result. Due to a lack of information about the virus and the absence of medical services in the community during the early stages of this outbreak, the coronavirus spread quickly. Consequently, it becomes extremely difficult to control the influence of the disease outbreak. Thus, this study wasaim to predict the peak numbers of the infected population on the first, the second, the third waves and endemic phase by utilizing aSusceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) predictive model between 25th January and 16th February 2020, corresponding to the entire first wave, the second, between 27th February 2020 and 30th June 2020, corresponding to part of the second wave, the current third wave began on 7th September 2020 and 1st April 2022, corresponding to the endemic phase, still present at the time of writing this article. The model retrieved thedata from a reliable sourceon the Internet andits design is based on certain assumptions.The estimated reproductive value()0Rin this model for all simulations is 5.1, which are interconnected factors that have contributed to the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. This led to the outbreak of a highly contagious disease.The number of infected populations increase with the rate of disease transmission rate of infected ()ï¢increases and vice versa and the spread of COVID-19 from first, second, third waves and endemic reached the maximum level in a very short time. The COVID-19 endemic in Malaysia is predicted to peak by early of March 2020 for the first wave, mid of April 2020 for the second wave, early of October 2020 for the third wave, and around April 22, 2022,for the endemic phase. The peak infected was predicted at 16,280,000 persons out of a total of susceptible individuals ()S33,573,874. Therefore, in addition to maintaining control measures at least until the anticipated peak time has passed, proper crisis management and efficient resource use are essential for successfully combating the endemic.
Affiliation:
- Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Perlis Branch, Malaysia
- Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Perlis Branch, Malaysia
- Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Perlis Branch, Malaysia
- Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Perlis Branch, Malaysia
- Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Perlis Branch, Malaysia
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