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COMPARING NUMERICAL METHODS OF THE EVANS PRICE ADJUSTMENT MODEL FOR GLOBAL SILVER PRICE
SARATHA SATHASIVAM1, SALAUDEEN ABDULWAHEED ADEBAYO2, MUHAMMAD AKMAN MOHD ZAHAR3, MURALY VELAVAN4.
This study aims to estimate the global prices of silver using the Evans Price Adjustment Model (EPAM). A mathematical model was developed, incorporating silver price, demand, and global supply data from 2013 to 2021 using EPAM. Two numerical methods for solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were applied: The fourth-order Adams-Bashforth-Moulton (ABM4) method, with the first four solutions obtained from the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, another numerical method for solving ODEs, and the Euler numerical method. The same problem was solved using the two stated numerical methods, with the ultimate aim being to investigate the most suitable method for price estimation. Previous research on silver prices used artificial neural networks and autoregressive integrated moving average series models, each with its own strength and weaknesses. Data for this study was collected from the World Bank, a public, open-source, and trustworthy website that provides data on the price of commodities. The results indicate that the ABM4 and Euler methods were able to capture the trend observed in the real silver price dataset. Although the ABM4 model outperformed its counterpart in accurately representing the prices of silver, both approaches yielded results that reflected the trend in the real prices of silver within the specified time frame. The findings of this study will be a useful reference material for investors and other shareholders in the silver business.
Affiliation:
- Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
- Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
- Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
- AIMST University, Malaysia
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