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Point forecast Markov Switching model for U.S. Dollar/ Euro exchange rate
MOSTAFAEI, HAMIDREZA1, Safaei, Maryam2.
This research proposes a point forecasting method into Markov switching autoregressive model. In case of two regimes, we proved the probability that h periods later process will be in regime 1 or 2 is given by steady-state probabilities. Then, using the value of h-step-ahead forecast data at time t in each regime and using steady-state probabilities, we present an h-step-ahead point forecast of data. An empirical application of this forecasting technique for U.S. Dollar/ Euro exchange rate showed that Markov switching autoregressive model achieved superior forecasts relative to the random walk with drift. The results of out-of-sample forecast indicate that the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar/ Euro exchange rate from May 2011 to May 2013 will be rising.
Affiliation:
- Islamic Azad University North Tehran, Iran
- Islamic Azad University North Tehran, Iran
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Indexation |
Indexed by |
MyJurnal (2021) |
H-Index
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6 |
Immediacy Index
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0.000 |
Rank |
0 |
Indexed by |
Web of Science (SCIE - Science Citation Index Expanded) |
Impact Factor
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JCR (1.009) |
Rank |
Q4 (Multidisciplinary Sciences) |
Additional Information |
JCI (0.15) |
Indexed by |
Scopus 2020 |
Impact Factor
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CiteScore (1.4) |
Rank |
Q2 (Multidisciplinary) |
Additional Information |
SJR (0.251) |
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