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Multiple time-scales nonlinear prediction of river flow using chaos approach
Nur Hamiza Adenan1, Mohd Salmi Md Noorani2.
River flow prediction is important in determining the amount of water in certain areas to
ensure sufficient water resources to meet the demand. Hence, an analysis and prediction of
multiple time-scales data for daily, weekly and 10-day averaged time series were performed
using chaos approach. An analysis was conducted at the Tanjung Tualang station, Malaysia.
This method involved the reconstruction of a single variable in a multi-dimensional phase
space. River flow prediction was performed using local linear approximation. The prediction
result is close to agreement with a high correlation coefficient for each time scale. The
analysis suggests that the presence of low dimensional chaos as an optimal embedding
dimension exists when the inverse method is adopted. In addition, a comparison of the
prediction performance of chaos approach, autoregressive integrated moving average
(ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and least squares
support vector machines (LSSVM) were performed. The comparative analysis shows that all
methods provide comparable predictions. However, chaos approach provides a simpler
means of analysis since it only use a scalar time series (river flow data). Therefore, the relevant
authorities may use this prediction result for the creation of a water management system for
local benefit.
Affiliation:
- Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
- Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
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Indexation |
Indexed by |
MyJurnal (2021) |
H-Index
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6 |
Immediacy Index
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0.000 |
Rank |
0 |
Indexed by |
Scopus 2020 |
Impact Factor
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CiteScore (1.4) |
Rank |
Q3 (Engineering (all)) |
Additional Information |
SJR (0.191) |
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